Summary of our Covid-19 Spreadsheet Forecasts - 18th April 2020

Current Pandemic Phase Forecast using spreadsheet v 202 – dated 18/4/20

If Lock down removed 1/5

Country

K Admiss’ns

K Deaths

Peak date

Clear date

Comment

K Admssn

K Deaths

Max date 2020

Wuhan

163.3

5.4

13/2

2/3

Includes some China numbers

600k

19k

24/8

UK

252.1

27.4

6/4

9/4

 

1m

110k

10/8

UK London

39.7

6.5

14/4

18/4

 

200k

33k

20/7

Italy

197.3

25.8

9/4

12/4

 

3.0m

420k

13/7

Spain

263.8

20.6

6/4

23/4

 

2.5m

200k

18/8

Brazil

170.2

16.0

26/4

21/4

Lock down takes 10 days to work

 

 

 

Spain Madrid

90.1

8.4

5/4

9/4

 

 

 

 

France

223.0

41.1

14/4

16/4

Lock-down not working (??)

 

 

 

USA nation

950.9

80.5

16/4

18/4

Very low admissns to H– effect lock-down unclear

16.0m

1.4m

14/8

USA New York

111.2

6.5

14/4

14/4

 

 

 

 

Germany

139.5

3.3

21/4

15/4

 

 

 

 

Sweden

22.4

2.0

19/4

22/4

Very low illness rates

 

 

 

India Nation

60m

4.5m

6/6

25/5

Assuming no effective lock-down in place

 

 

 

Australia

16.4

0.1

17/4

18/4

Very low illness rates

 

 

 




 200418_CV19_PandemicReEngV202.xlsx

 
 
 

In the UK it now looks as if in this current lock-down ( March-April 2020) that the deaths will be around 31,000. 


The second wave - which is probably unavoidable to some extent - could lead to around 110,000 total covid-19 UK deaths - of which 33,000 would be in London. All of this by August - if the lock-down is fully released by 1st May 2020. Though the number of deaths seems large, the number represents about 0.7% of the entire population who become infected. 







 
 
 

Our forecast suggests that a second wave will occur about 2 months after the lock down is completely released.

The effect on deaths will be directly and inversely proportionate to the success of any continuing instructions about distance and personal protection. The more successful the distancing, the fewer deaths are likely.

 
 
 

Not only is Italy having a tough time - it is likely to get worse when the lock down is released. 

I have not had opportunity to check these forecast numbers - but they are potentially huge (400k deaths).

Both Italy and Spain have fewer people going to Hospital, but when they are there the outcomes are worse - though proportionately, they are still better than Wuhan.
 
 
 
Forecasts included for Releases

You will now find that in the spreadsheet, you may switch the future pandemic on or off. (the large "Y" drop down, by the charts).

The whole year forecast charts are below the main charts. 

For China, if the release is made without a vaccine or real treatment, there will be a large number of deaths as a direct result. 


National results vary, but broadly:
        for every 10,000 deaths,
               more than 250,000 recover.