Daily death rates in the UK peaked week commencing 13th April.

The data shows that the Covid-19 Pandemic Phase I is over.
There is now an interesting issue of how governments with large populations try to keep the contagion to very low levels and not igniting another epidemic. 

In most countries, the number now infected and recovered from Covid-19 is in the order of 2 to 4 million.   In the UK I estimate the recoveries to be at around the 200,000 from Hospital, and 2 to 4 million recovered at home.  
In London the recoveries from Hospital now total approximately 200,000 and this will grow to 600,000 by the end of the year. 

For every 150,000 of cumulative admissions to hospital in the UK, there have been around 20,000 cumulative deaths. 
For every 2 recoveries from Hospital, there are around 4 to 8 recoveries at home. As the virus ages, more and more people will recover at home as a percentage of the total.

Forecast at 20/4/20

 

28/4/20 Forecast of total Pandemic

Country

K Admiss’ns

K Deaths

Peak date

Comment

% of lock-down remains

% into Adm x Normal

% Die x Normal

K Admssn

K Deaths

Overby

Wuhan

166.2

13.4

1/3

Not reliable #

100

100

166k

13k

24/8

UK

344.5

50.1

6/4

50%

20

150

512k

69k

21/9

UK London

39.7

6.5

14/4

0%

33

175

120k

16k

20/11

Italy

197.3

25.8

9/4

50%

55

150

2.0m

353k

30/11

Spain

263.8

20.6

6/4

50%

40

133

0.4m

116k

18/12

Brazil

170.2

16.0

26/4

Contagion 33%  0%

100

175

800k

75k

21

Spain Madrid

90.1

8.4

5/4

0%

25

150

80k

14k

12/10

France

223.0

41.1

14/4

L-D failing:   50%

50

175

1.8m

260k

16/11

USA nation

950.9

80.5

16/4

Governors: 50%

40

100

4.5m

247k

21/12

USA nation

 

 

 

Trump Option: 0%

40

100

14.0m

800k

28/9

USA New York

111.2

6.5

14/4

0%

20

150

160k

16k

21/8

Germany

139.5

3.3

21/4

Contagion 40%: 50%

100

150

1.2m

90k

31/12

Sweden

22.4

2.0

19/4

Contagion 30%:   0%

33

150

250k

25k

31/7

India Nation

60m

4.5m

6/6

Assumed: 0%

Not to be used!!!

1

25

1.2m

14k

1/6

Australia

16.4

0.1

17/4

50%

80

125

35k

0.4k

31/12


The % into admissions differencessuggest that nations experience the virus in different ways due to traits, behavioursor weather (say).

The “contagion” figure base line is 50%.Different figures for some nations suggest variations of the virus.





 
 
 

It does look as if London's future is moderately clear of Covid-19.

If the contagion factor can be kept to 45% of lock-down levels, there will not be a Phase II. 




 
 
 
Phase II of the virus is the next challenge

Unless the release means that the non-contagion distancing is applied at a minimum of 45% of lock-down success, there will be a significant Phase II.  Phase II for any country looks like 3 to 5 time worse than phase I. 

Some cities have managed to clear the key numbers so their populations are reasonably "safe" - this merely means that daily deaths will be at relatively low levels, and health services not inundated.
 
 
 

Italy is going to continue to have a tough time with virus.

A 50% effective lock-down rate does not stop Phase II for them. 




Also, Spain cannot simply release everyone.

But - Madrid can, so long as they are prepared for a repetition of the number of deaths.
 
 
 

France can release so long as the 50% effective lock-down of contagion works OK.