UK reopened yesterday - July 5th Update

The government has started to release individuals and businesses from lock-down. 

Oxford University efforts to create a vaccine still looks good - in fact, it looks more likely than any other around the world, and could be in final roll-out/testing stage in September. 

It now looks like the fundamental process model in Excel continues to predict some country's hospitalisations and deaths - BUT, where a country has multiple cities or a widely distributed population, the model is too simple.

I have reviewed the model, and for populations up to 20,000 the epidemic runs its course within 2 months. 85% are infected, 15% need hospitalisation and up to 10% die.  The model does not cater for multiple re-infections into previously clear populations - and does not predict more complex lock-downs - in which specific cities could be locked down in isolation.  this means that the forecasting is only decent for the first wave. After 2 months of forecast closely tracking reality, the forecasting is now not reliable for large countries, and those where re-infection in multiple places is occurring. The whole forecast has to be more responsive to travel, cross infection, a varying period of individuals having no symptoms - but who are contagious.

This task of re-making the forecast model would take several days to implement - and even then, would require a significant improvement in the base data available on the populations selected to report upon. Sadly, I have neither the time nor funding for that level of additional detail.

My Covid-19 model stops here. If you use(d) it, I hoped it helped.


 200705_CV19_PandemicReEngV301.xlsx

 
 
 
UK reopened yesterday - July 5th Update

So finally. A re-opening.

At some point the scientists and statisticians will turn their focus onto the cost of this nonsense.

Right now, I estimate the cost to be in excess of £1m per year of life extended.
95% of those with the years of life extensions are older than 70, and more than 60% over 75. 

It is a terrible fact that the young generation will have to deal with and pay for the debt that has been incurred. 

Inflation will happen. There is so much cash around that has been pumped into the global economies that scarce assets (and services) must increase in price. There are no other options that are reasonable (governments wont write off one-another's debts when the private loans remain at 100% of value). 

A large number of big companies will go broke. Many of the highly leveraged businesses (especially owned by Private Equity houses) will fail and be "phoenixed" from the ashes. If you have a pension fund, be careful where you put your money. 



 200705_CV19_PandemicReEngV301.xlsx