Top level with V202 - Current spreadsheet
Here is the latest Covid-19 Spreadsheet Prediction and Forecast


Summary of findings

Now added future expectations if lock-downs are released.  The figures are dramatic.  More work needs to be done to check out those.

By the middle of April, the majority of the Covid first wave will be done.

The only reason to keep populations locked down are therefore the postponement of phase II - and of course, to wait for a cure or treatment. 

 200418_Covid-Spreadsheet-Deaths-PredictionsV202a.pdf
 200418_CV19_PandemicReEngV202.xlsx

 
 
 
Here is a useful spreadsheet to forecast life, death and more arising from COVID-19

The spreadsheet you may down load from here allows you to predict Illness, Hospital Admissions, and Deaths from the Virus 

This spreadsheet is my work alone (I am David Lynch MBA FCMA): Be aware that the contents are a model - it does not represent fact; I am neither a medic nor a specialist in predicting pandemics. However, I have extensive experience of modelling complex business outcomes based on diverse and sometimes strange variables - for businesses running projects valued at between £500m and $3bn. I create (usually) Excel models and validate them as best I can, before publishing them. 

This spreadsheet is really to predict when the release of the public can be achieved (and what the likely re-occurrence rate is) is quite complex, as it allows the user to see how variable the different outcomes are according to lots of different factors. All the errors are mine: If you find any, please let me know.

For the latest Covid-19 forecast update - click into the latest date
Each forecast is provided based on the publicly information I had at the time (in hindsight, it seems somewhat partial - so the public are not given all the information needed to make informed decisions).  

 
 
 

Download the spreadsheet and look at the predictions for your own country - just open the file in Excel, on the "calcs-w-gov" tab, top left select your country, and see the result in the charts.  The operation of the spreadsheet itself is fairly complex (to save space), but modifying data for your own community on the "PopnControl" tab - is fairly straightforward. I have included all of the variables in the page where you may do this. 

The Calcs page does all of the calculations. 
  • At the top, the variables are brought in from your selected location data on the PopnControl tab.
  • Then the contagion is calculated, across the time span in the variables.
  • Then, the illness, hospitalisation death and recovery are calculated.
You will note that there is one option for a cruise liner, the spreadsheet is able to provide some information for outcomes for all instances - the outcomes are very sensitive to the number of days of contagion, days in hospital before Ventilation and several others. Be careful.


 
 
 
Why I have built this COVID-19 life and death predictor spreadsheet

I do not believe quite a lot of the hyperbole currently being spouted by the media, and by some notable politicians. It would be very helpful if the media would actually tell us what the models are actually predicting - and whether that is a reasonable forecast. So far I have seen almost nothing that I can rely upon - merely extracts from someones data, which the journalist and their editor has not properly understood. The information from the BBC News desk is completely hopeless - interviewing the man or woman in the street, about "how do they feel about their situation" - or now more frequently, a woman on Skype or Zoom. Even Marr and Peston suffer from having inadequate numbers at their fingertips. News reporting is better from the SKY News desk, but not by a lot. 

When I see a commander of  USA aircraft carrier "Roosevelt" in Guam basically saying "my ratings and officers don't have to die - take us off the ship" - I know that he is suffering from an almost complete information black-out - caused by poor data communications from his bosses and the global media. On his ship, assuming that very few are over the age of 50, there is almost no likelihood of any of those 4,000 souls on board dying - if they are all part of the "normal" population with illnesses generally. Some may become ill - but the chances of death are very, low (but still, not zero). The spreadsheet suggests that 45 are likely to become quite ill on that ship. I now understand the guy lost his job - what a nonsense from the White House. They should not be minimising exposure to Covid - they should be maximising it: everyone will then become largely immune. 

This spreadsheet allows the user to input around 120 separate national variables, and a further 50 for each virus group - and all are reflected in the outcome predicted. The numbers forecast Daily numbers, and Cumulative numbers - for Deaths and Hospital Admissions.  I have attempted to keep all of the basic variables the same for each nation by adjusting a small number of variables (eg, population demographic, proportions in Carrier, Normal, and At Risk categories; the dates of government lock-downs) - but some nations' data do have real differences from one-another.  Italy and Spain are similar - China is a one-off. Germany and Sweden are relatively mild sufferers. Australia hardly knows there is a pandemic on right now.