Even the statisticians are clueless about the numbers...

So Neil Ferguson (a statistician) was reported in the Guardian saying that a one week earlier lock-down would have saved 50% of excess deaths.

This is nonsense.

This spreadsheet models outcomes of excess deaths very closely (within about 2% confidence interval on most parameters) - so we have run various options to see what the effect would have been - if the PM had introduced lock-down a week earlier,  or a  week later. 

And the results are:
If no lock-down had been introduced, a total of 323,000 excess deaths would have occurred in the UK, and over 2.9m would have been hospitalised from April to June.  But, the liberal media would have gone mad and called the government ministers "uncaring killers" I'm sure - which would have been unbearable for most politicians.  However, with no lock-down, there would have been very few additionally implicated deaths (e.g. those people who died because they avoided hospital, and those people who just can't live with a lock-down situation, plus those people now dead who would have been alive were it not for lock-down -e.g. Parkinsons sufferers and others) - and this number probably amounts to 40%-50% of the currently Covid-19 announced deaths {so by mid June, this is about 15,000-20,000 - with up to 80,000 needing hospital each day at peak). 

The Base-Line: With the main lock-down operating from 23rd March by the 14th June, there were 41,000 announced Covid-19 deaths - and the total before Christmas 2020 {assuming that the 50% continuing lock-down is successful} the total deaths by Christmas will be around 78,000.  The number hospitalised will reach 700,000 at the year end. So the entire lock-down will have delayed the deaths of around 245,000 people, and the NHS has coped with up to 8,000 patients daily.

Had the lock-down been introduced 7 days earlier, by Christmas deaths will be 70,000 assuming the lock-down remains at 50% effective. The number of hospitalisations will be approaching 700,000 by year end.  So 7 days earlier - and the saving in lives would have be around 10,000 maximum. 

Even if the lock-down had been in place 2 weeks earlier, deaths will still be at 60,000, and hospitalisations nearly 600,000. 

If the lock-down was put in placed delayed by one week, the deaths would have been 90,000 and hospitalisations 705,000. 
For a 2 week delayed lock-down, the deaths grow to 120,000 and hospitalisations to 1,050,000 with a peak at 30,000 a day. 

So the numbers suggest that each week of earlier lock-down, would have saved about 10,000 lives. Remember that one week of lock-down costs a minimum of £10bn. 

Note that: If the release from lock-down is not effective, the numbers going to hospital in August will reach 60,000 a day - and total 2.5m. On the same basis, deaths will reach 300,000 by September. 


 200611_CV19_PandemicReEngV209.xlsx

 
 
 

The numbers suggest that Brazil's nightmare will not end until mid July - if they are "lucky".

Deaths there could be 160,000.


France has had an outbreak - that now looks as if it might be contained. 
However - their peak illness is not likely to hit until October. 


The USA hospitalisation figures should have reduced over the last 2 weeks - they have not done so. This means tat their lock-down is not working, and more deaths will ensue. 
Over the rest of 2020 the USA deaths are likely to be more than 300,000, from hospitalisations of over 4m. 



 
 
 

In other countries the story continues to be bad.

Ignorant leaders are causing many deaths (USA, Brazil, India for instance). 

It is remarkable that no-one has identified that the health service professionals are themselves a very major transmission agent for the virus. How else does the virus get into old people's homes so quickly - and kill so many of the health staff? In my view it is because many of them are driven to help others - even when they feel ill. They are asymptomatic - and so cause the spread unwittingly. A sad observation. 



 
 
 

India looks like it is significantly massaging the numbers.
The admissions reporting might have hit a barrier of capacity(?) at 10,000 a day. The demand is likely to b 5 times that figure. Deaths are dramatically increasing - but India is benefiting from an illness factor of only 6% that of China. 

Iran - has had an outbreak - but that might be under a degree of control.