USA and Brazil will suffer more

The UK will not suffer greatly if the 50% effective lock-down works.

Italy will have a major outbreak from August through September unless substantial precautions are taken (or a major vaccine immunisation plan is implemented - for visitors as well as residents).

Today a small number of changes are made - as the underlying closeness of fit between prediction and reality for most countries if very good. 
The USA lock-down effectiveness was reduced to 75% from 80% - as their infection rate is not decreasing as it should. However the death rate is not as bad as predicted.
For India the overall contagion rate is reduced to 33% from 40% - so their effective sickness rate is only 7% that of China.
Australia's death rate at home is reduced to 15% of "normal", and the contagion rate increase to 66%.  Total COVID-19 deaths will not be significant in Australia. 
Iran's death rate is reduced to 110% of China - meaning that the effective illness rate reduces to 73%

As countries release from the lock-down there is a great deal of non-sense being put out there by the left leaning press.
Primarily, it seems that the scientists now seem to think that every life is immeasurably valuable - and they want to prolong the agony of citizens being unable to earn money to feed and house themselves and their families. They also want to ignore the great harm being done in the invisible ways - the cancer sufferers not treated, the empty hospitals that should be full of elective surgery patients, etc, etc. At a cost of more than £500,000 per year of life saved - this is a ludicrously expensive way of dealing with a pandemic. 






 200607CV19_PandemicReEngV208.xlsx

 
 
 
 
 
 

Brazil is a place to avoid for some time yet.

Iran is having a difficult time also.

India - although the variant is not so bad as in China (only 20% illness rate) - there will be a lot of deaths there.