With 50% efficiency of lock-down (for most) the second wave of Covid 19 deaths will not be huge

Deaths from Covid-19 by Christmas 2020, are likely to be:

UK          100,000
Italy        140,000
Spain       80,000
Brazil      150,000
USA        380,000
Germany  45,000




The UK deaths will reach 100,000 by Christmas - but the daily rate peak in August.
The 50% effectiveness rate is a crucial factor in this forecast. 
If the government implements the test + trace strategy for isolation, this could reduce deaths further.
The UK mortality is 30 deaths per 250 Hospital admissions

Italy will have significant second wave of Covid deaths. Probably taking them to 140,000 in total.
Their mortality of 30 deaths per 200 Hospital admissions is high. 

Spain is likely to reach 80,000 deaths by Christmas. The peak of deaths will be in October.


Deaths in Germany are very low: 8 per 150 Hospital Admissions.