The lock-down release is going to help

No changes other than imported figures have been made to the assumptions generated previously. 
This allows us to see whether the reporting of deaths is diverging from historic trends or not.

Deaths from Covid-19 will reduce substantially if the effectiveness of distancing is 50% as good as staying at home.

The UK results are following almost exactly as predicted. Illness is 98% of China outbreak.  By Christmas, deaths around 60,000 in total.
Going in to hospital is not a good thing - expect 13% death. 

From our calculations, there have now been nearly 3,000,000 recoveries and 35,000 deaths in the UK (85 recoveries to 1 death).



 200531_CV19_PandemicReEngV207.xlsx

 
 
 
Brazil is a war zone for Covid-19 with no-one being seriously protected. 
The admissions and deaths are currently as predicted with over 40,000 deaths - and a likely 160,000+ will die before end of August.
Even so, Brazil's illness factor is only 55% of China. It is possible that their deaths grow to over 500,000.  AVOID.

France has a problem looming. Deaths will be minimal for June and July but will rise in August. Likely deaths by Christmas 150,000. 
The illness factor for France is similar to England - and is 100% of China.

The USA admissions and illness have just started to become slightly worse than predicted. The Illness factor of 40% of that of China will lead to around 350,000 deaths by Christmas.  On entering hospital, risk of death is just more than 5%.







 
 
 
Internationally, many countries have a problem.

Some countries are much more exposed to risks of death than others.

Italy will have a further outbreak starting in August, but mainly Sept/October.The current deaths of 35,000 will escalate to over 80,000. Expect further lock-downs there at that time (it will however, be a waste of effort).  Italy have now approximately 2m recovered. Italy's illness works out at 75% of that of China.

Spain will have a much better time of it: Deaths will reach 25,000 - so long as effective distancing is better than 50% effective of home lock-down. Recoveries now are at less than 2m.  The Spanish second wave won't start until December - by which time a vaccine and/or treatment will be available. 




 
 
 
Germany has had test and trace operating for several months. 
If their release of lock-down is 50% effective and no tracing is implemented, their deaths will reach 43,000 by Christmas.