Covid-19 the second wave will happen - like it or not

There is no treatment for the virus, and no vaccine.
This effectively means the only thing a hospital can do is to keep you alive in the hope that your immune system will eventually overcome the virus. 
For most people, it does. 

Our calculations show that in the UK, 30,000 deaths are reflected in the fact that 1.8m people have now recovered. 
So the death rate is actually around 1.7% of those expected to have contracted Covid-19 virus.

This is not quite as bad as it might at first appear - as there are two groups of people who are susceptible to the virus, and whose percentages are much higher - these are:
  • BAME groups.
  • At Risk - those with pre-existing severe heart or lung health issues.

For the healthy individuals not in these groups, it is likely that your expectation of death if you contract the virus, is less than 0.5%

Country

K Admiss’ns

K Deaths – NOW

K Deaths – ALL 2020

Recovered – NOW

Comment

33 % of lock-down remains

Admissns Factor

National Factor

Over by

Wuhan

295k

4

8k

3.5m

Numbers not reliable

100%

100%

Dec

UK

250k

20

200k

1.8m

 

80%

122%

Sept

UK London

80k

4

60k

400k

 

133%

162%

Oct

Italy

250k

40k

230k

1.8m

 

50%

149%

Sept

Spain

180k

25k

150k

1.6m

 

50%

103%

Oct

Brazil

200k

5k

160k

100k

 

40%

135%

Sep

Spain Madrid

65k

6k

7k

1.2m

 

30%

148%

Oct

France

150k

21k

180k

3.2m

 

50%

202%

Sep

USA nation

1m

90k

510k

11.0m

 

35%

116%

Sep

USA nation

1m

90k

650k

11.0m

Trump option (no social distancing)

35%

116%

Sep

USA New York

150k

10k

12k

2.0m

 

30%

116%

Jun

Germany

180k

8k

55k

3.0m

 

20%

116%

Aug

Sweden

25k

3k

28k

150k

 

85%

132%

Apr

Australia

10k

0.1k

0.4k

700k

 

40%

106%

Sep

Iran

100k

6k

17k

550k

 

100%

106%

Sep






 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_01China.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_04London.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_03UK.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_05Italy.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_06Spain.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_08Madrid.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_11USA.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_14NewYork.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_16Germany.pdf
 200429_CV19_PandemicReEngV204_17Sweden.pdf

 
 
 
 
 
 

Open up the spreadsheet in a recent version of Excel (2016 or later), then open a second window and CTRL Page down to the CALCS page.

In the main window, select the RANGE NAME - "_SHOW_CHARTS"
(this is the narrow drop down box on the left on the same row as the formula bar.  You will be taken to the place where the charts are).

If the page has too much open, at the top of the left hand column, CLICK #2. This will close up all the calcs that are not necessary to be seen (too much detail).

Then in the yellow drop down box, select the name of the country you wish to see. 

The charts will change to show the result of the calculations given the setting of the variables in the system.