The second wave of COVID-19 (for some) will be a Tsunami

Nations that have locked people down tightly and if the population fails to keep distance (so the contagion is more than 50% of "normal") - they will reap a whirlwind of death, so the modelling shows.

Unless the summer affects the virus dramatically (it might, based on the Australian experience of the virus) and non treatment or vaccine is found, deaths in the UK will be over 90,000 by Christmas 2020.

The forecast out-turn of total deaths, given alternate effectiveness of lock-down contagion avoidance, with the release on 10th May:

 

 

 

Deaths if contagion held back by these %

 

 

Country

Total deaths at 9th May

Illness % of Wuhan base

0% lock-down remaining

33%

50%

60%

Population

% deaths in popn @ 50%

Wuhan (base case)

6,107

100%

9,600

8,000

6,300

6,250

11m

0.057

UK

27,940

115%

366,000

254,000

123,000

63,000

66m

0.136

Italy

30,201

74%

285,000

238,000

173,000

93,000

60m

0.286

Spain

25,937

51%

195,000

150,000

85,000

26,000

47m

0.181

France

26,230

101%

211,000

187,000

153,000

111,000

67m

0.166

Germany

7,369

23%

60,000

53,000

43,000

31,000

83m

0.052

Sweden

3,175

53%

24,000

14,000

9,000

8,000

10m

0.088

USA

77,180

41%

665,000

545,000

388,000

239,000

327m

0.119

New York

24,000

132%

30,000

30,000

30,000

30,000

8.6m

0.348

Australia

100

60%

1,000

700

400

300

25m

0.002

In each case, the next wave takes around 3 months to peak.

It is clear that built up urban areas are more susceptible to the virus. I show above an estimate of the different contagion and “attack”rates – and also a % out-turn given the 50% success of minimising contagion.  Using these it is potentially possible to estimate the effectiveness of the different approaches adopted by nations: However,the effect of climate, season and national traits is also probably very important.  In addition to these, it is likely that the adoption of tracing policies the effective tracing of infected individuals is the single most important action to reduce the outcome of deaths in the entire population. Initially I thought testing was a waste of time (as everyone was going to become infected anyway) - but I have changed my opinion if testing is backed by a thorough tracing and isolation policy (Both Germany and China have adopted this).

This explains the low death outcomes (so far) in Germany - and in China. In Australia, it is more likely that the hot summer weather had a major effect. 

Based on this table, there appear to be at least 3 virus strains:

  •        High illness – 100%+ of Wuhan base line. UK/France, New York.

  •         European – 45% to 74% - Italy, Spain Sweden.

  •         Low illness – 23% to 44% - Germany, USA.

It is important to note that those countries with low death outcomes have not won against the virus.  They have merely postponed the battle with the virus. 

The idea that this lock-down is a good idea, is a strange one. 

ALSO

So at 50% successful lock-down behaviour continuing, in the UK there will be around 123,000 deaths. Every one is a tragedy: But. In a normal week, 10,000 to 15,000 people die in the UK anyway. The total of 123,000 is not a massive number - it will not have a dramatic effect on the lives of everyone else. Yes, some families will suffer, and grief is always problematic. But: the financial cost is monstrous. 

We can now calculate that one death shortened the life of those individuals by approximately 10 to 20 years. We can probably use a conservative average of say 25 years. (this then generates a total direct loss of 3.1m life years). 

This whole approach is at a total cost to the economy of over £500bn by the Government - and a similar amount (probably a great deal more) from business and personal resources. For simplicity, lets say £1Tn.   This all means that the specialist advisers are valuing one year of life of an "average" member of the population who die (average age 70), at around £320,000. This is very conservative estimate: it is probably double that.

The price of this will be paid not by us who are now alive and over the age of (say 50) - it will be paid by those younger individuals, whose life chances will be reduced because governments around the world have racked up such an enormous amount of debt - without thinking through the consequences adequately. 

With this effect in mind, I can say that the specialists and so-called professionals have got their reaction very wrong. It will take 10 years for this to even begin to unwind.
There will be dramatic whirlwinds of debt and death and starvation as a direct result. I am unable to predict exactly what that will look like and when it will happen. But, it will happen.



 200509_CV19_PandemicReEngV205.xlsx

 
 
 
 
 
 
So then, it does not look great for the elderly - BUT it is still only MAY.

A vaccine is very likely by the end of June - and then manufacturing will take a few months.

By October (assuming they vaccinate the elderly first) most people will be clear in Europe, so normal life could almost resume.